One of the arguments over the invasion of Iraq was whether it would make the region more stable or less stable. Those favoring the invasion argued a peaceful and prosperous democracy would be an affirmative example for the region. Those opposed to it insisted that fighting against an occupying power would radicalized jihadists in the region and provide a training ground for insurgents. Not a problem, countered the advocates of invasion: there wouldn’t be any fighting. We would be welcomed as liberators.
Remember? It’s hard to find a recent example of strategic calculation more disastrously wrong than that one. If that judgment as to the level of resistance to occupation was incorrect, was the prediction of regional stability flawed as well? The answer to that is Yemen.
Yemen is a pretty screwed up place, but an uneasy truce between the government and Islamic insurgents has held for quite a few years. Now that truce is unraveling, in part because of the increasing number of militant insurgent veterans in the country returning from Iraq – skills honed and convictions hardened by the fire of combat.
Here’s a fight we need to be very circumspect about: jihadists on one side and a corrupt ineffective government on the other, in a country ready to split along ethnic and tribal fault lines. It’s a nightmare war ready to happen.
Another nightmare war? I think we’re full up on those.
Here’s a link to a good overview of the history of the conflict and the current situation.
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Brian King said:
The number of failed states in the region suggests that Yemen shares more in common with them, than with Iraq. I can’t imagine any administration seeing Yemen as more than a proxy war for the West. In a lawless chaos (a la Somalia) there just isn’t enough resources to get involved in anything more than drones and intel gathering. The lessons of the past 9 years are crystal clear – the US and its allies can topple any regional power in the Middle East overnight…but re-building the nation is where we fall flat on our face.
January 15th, 2010 at 10:21 am
andrew Guzaldo said:
I am Editor/CEo of the Amici Journal, I am interested in publishing the Yemen article in our next upcoming edition.
Regards
Andrew G
Editor/CEO
January 15th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Gary Chilcote said:
The neighborhood has a lot to do with it though. The reason the local al Qaida franchise refers to itself as Al Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula is that they’ve been driven out of most other local jurisdictions. Many are Saudi militants fleeing their own government’s crack down.
In terms of stability, Yemen is probably the weakest state on the peninsula and so the vermin have simply drained into the lowest point available.
January 15th, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Karl Gaarsoe said:
You didn’t mention the recent NYT story about Yemen’s failed agricultueal policies and looming water crisis (Also reported on NPR). It is GAURANTEED to become a failed state; Somewhere between five years and a generation? And no, I don’t want any of them to come here.
January 21st, 2010 at 6:33 pm