Most of the fighting in Yemen is about familiar complaints: economic disparities between the regions, inequitable division of the nation’s resources, and discrimination along religious sectarian and tribal lines.

Al Qaeda has a presence in Yemen and is trying to take advantage of the mounting conflict to align itself with anti-government rebels and so gain more secure bases in the area. If the Yemenis could tamp down the violence, and find some peaceful solutions to the issues behind them, everyone would be happy except for al Qaeda.

The good news is that Qatar has offered to mediate between the northern rebels and the government, and the rebels are open to the idea. Qatar brokered a cease-fire in 2008 in the north which now seems to be unraveling, but at least they have a track record and the trust of both sides. The Saudis are also prepared to get involved, so with a little luck this can be contained.

Here are articles on the latest fighting from AFP, Reuters, IRIN, and The Guardian.

Voice of America
Christian Science Monitor
Reuters

Pakistan has volunteered to act as a mediator between Kabul and the Taliban, and there is a growing sense that direct talks between Karzai and at least some low-level Taliban leaders will be necessary. The plan does not include reconciliation with senior Taliban officials, but rather is aimed at winning over the Taliban rank-and-file. Yesterday American envoy Richard Holbrooke argued, “The overwhelming majority of these people are not ideological supporters of Mullah Omar and Al Qaeda. Based on interviews with prisoners, returnees, experts, there must be at least 70 percent of these people who are not fighting for anything to do with those causes.”

There are some reservations about dealing with the Taliban, particularly among Afghan women who remember what a hell-hole the country was for them under the Taliban last time. It’s not an issue which should get lost in the shuffle, but the truth is that any lasting peace in Afghanistan has to involve a substantial number of the guys out there carrying AKMs and RPGs.

Meantime, a major Pashtun tribe has come on-board with the coalition, in what sounds remarkably like the beginning of a “Pashtun Awakening” movement. Where it will go is anyone’s guess, but these are things worth watching.