The 2001 9/11 attack delivered a psychological shock to the United States from which we have yet to recover. We felt secure before that day. Afterwards, we felt insecure. Much of what we have done since then has been to recapture that lost sense of security.
Among other things, military spending has more than doubled. The actual Defense Department baseline budget has gone from $308 billion in 2001 to $534 billion this coming year, but to that number has to be added another $130 billion for “overseas contingency operations,” and another $350 or so billion for defense-related expenditures not in the DOD budget, and you end up with a cool trillion in real military spending.
We outspend the entire rest of the world combined. Chop out our major allies (UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and Israel) and we out-spend the rest of the world over one and a half times. China is in the midst of a major build-up. We outspend them by between seven and nine times.
Yet we do not feel secure.
Consider the case of the navy. We have actually reduced the size of the navy in the last ten years. As Secretary of Defense Gates observed last year, “As much as the U.S. Navy has shrunk since the end of the Cold War, for example, in terms of tonnage, its battle fleet is still larger than the next 13 navies combined—and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners.”
Consider the case of carriers. Our NATO allies have, between them, four carriers with a combined embarked air group of about 100 aircraft.
The non- NATO navies of the world have today a total of four more carriers – and that’s really generous, since it counts the Russian Kuznetzov, which rarely leaves port and then only to limp around by itself for a while and then go home. But even counting him, the non- NATO world’s carriers have a combined embarked air group of about 100 aircraft total.
The US Navy has eleven Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs), each with an embarked air group of about 100 aircraft. Considering the quality of carrier-embarked aircraft on our carriers and everyone else’s, and the quality of USN pilots, I’d put my money on any one USN CSG against every non-NATO carrier in the world. And we have eleven of them.
And yet we do not feel secure. We know the Chinese are going to build a carrier – someday.
We have a margin of global material military superiority absolutely unprecedented in history. And yet, the newest trend in American politics is to get in touch with our inner fears and anxieties. Being “smart” on defense now means being afraid, being very afraid. A “can-do” attitude is evidence of naïve complacency. The world is full of danger and people who want to hurt us. And the people who like us — who’s to say they might not change their minds? Or maybe they just pretend to like us to find out where we keep our money.
You can’t be really serious about national security unless you understand that on our current course we are doomed, do you hear me? Doomed. The story of the current dialog on defense might easily be titled, “The Triumph of Fear.”
Remember that old saw about one definition of insanity being that you keep doing the same thing and expect different results? It’s the endless behavior loop of the addict. We’re caught in that loop right now. We’ve doubled what we spend, we outspend the rest of the planet combined, and we still don’t feel secure. I get that. It’s because nothing as simple as defense spending is ever going to turn the psychological clock back to pre-9/11.
What I don’t get is why the conclusion we draw from that is to spend more.
I’m not saying spend less on defense. I think a rational examination of our defense needs and how best to meet them would probably come to that conclusion, but I’m not wedded to it and I don’t have a number in my head. What I would like is to have us wake up and realize that we are chasing a high we remember, but will never find again. We are never going to feel as safe and good and confident as we did before 9/11, no matter how much we spend. So get used to it.
And let’s stop bankrupting ourselves chasing that rainbow with buckets of cash, because that sure isn’t going to get it back.
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Trevor said:
Great write-up. Enjoyed the balance between commentary and research. It really is amazing how sheepish we appear by succumbing to blatant fear tactics of politicians. I love military history, I drool over the newest military gadgets, and I take pride in our armed forces. But enough is enough. Its time to shift all those billions into infrastructure, education, etc.
March 16th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Frank Chadwick said:
Trevor, Thanks for your comment. I find myself in a very similar position. Hey, who doesn’t apreciate the sleek lines of a really well-built mobile protected gun system?
March 18th, 2010 at 7:26 am
Marc Custer said:
There was no mystery or surprise to the events of 9/11 for me. After reading PNAC’s plan earlier and who were in the GWB administration it was a no brainer. I worked nights and the family woke me up to say we were under attack. My response looking hazedly at the TV, “They’ll blame bin Laden. Mumble, mumble, so they got their Pearl Harbor event… Grumble, grumble.” Then I went back to sleep. But it worked on everyone else. I felt ashamed that in the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave people were really freaking out. They let the Government and Military spiral out of control. Because they felt afraid. When I analyzed how it was done, from the years of build up after the Cold War, to the psyops of creating the new “enemy” it dismays me to see how well it was done and just how gullible the American People have become…and how afraid. Now we have become the “Evil Empire” as the political system, security apparatus they installed, the expansion of the military-industrial complex and the endless wars have changed the face of America.
March 23rd, 2010 at 9:41 am