Want some good news? Al-Qa’ida’s days are numbered. It’s not a security thing or an intelligence thing or a counterinsurgency thing; it’s a generational thing.
Violent revolutionary movements tend to run in forty-year cycles of rise, peak, and decline. The reason is simple. The established order has failed to address a series of concerns critical to a disenfranchised segment of the population. A bunch of “Young Turks” come along, point to the inability of the old farts to deliver, and offer their violent alternative as a means of shaking things up and getting genuine change. Are you with me so far? Swell.
Then, after about twenty years of shaking things up, all the Young Turks aren’t looking so young any more. A new generation of Young Turks has come along, but the founders of the movement tell them to shut up, not make waves, and follow orders. But if there hasn’t been a lot of real progress toward the goals of the movement, that younger generation starts wondering why they’re doing all the bleeding, and for what? Enthusiasm starts to wane, recruiting is down, and the Old Guard (not really Young Turks any more) rely on increasingly violent means to keep their own rank and file in line and keep hold of the headlines. But in a couple more years they are just a bunch of ineffective old farts unable to deliver on their promises, and a new generation grows up realizing that rather than being the solution, those old guys are the problem.
Does everyone believe this generational theory of revolutionary movements? No. Lots of folks still argue that al-Qa’ida and the jihadist movement will go on generating terror indefinitely. The “40-year wave” theory of terror was developed by UCLA Professor David C. Rapoport. The 2008 report of the National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, thought enough of it to include its conclusions in their look forward.
It’s not just theory; it’s history. Social Democrats. Anarchists. Communists. Revolutionary movements have recently been one-generational waves. In the mid-east before al-Qa’ida, it was the Arab Nationalist movement. They came to power in most of the Arab countries in the wake of World War II with young leaders, big ideas, and the promise of genuine change. Twenty years later they had peaked and twenty years after that they were the people al-Qa’ida set out to topple.
So where are we now? About a year ago al-Qa’ida celebrated its twentieth birthday. Are there any signs of aging? You bet. Suicide bombing has been a hallmark of al-Qa’ida and recruiting bombers has gotten harder and harder. There are a lot of reasons – too many innocent Moslem casualties for starters and no real progress on any of the movement’s key issues are big ones.
The result has been a dwindling supply of male volunteers which has forced them to turn to female recruiting. Their recruiting tactics are shocking, even for them. A recently captured recruiter confessed to arranging the rape of young women and then recruiting the victims with the argument that suicide was the only escape from the shame. Nice, huh?
Those aren’t the tactics of a movement confident in its future. Maybe they aren’t quite death throes, yet, either, but we’re on the down side of the curve.
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Leon Wojo said:
Although this theory seems to be based off of historical examples, I would have to disagree. The fact is that this theory is only a Theory. How acurate do you really think this is? If you look at the problem with a historical view you will find a historical answer. However, lets look at the issue at hand. Does it really matter if Al Qa’ida falls apart? Realistically it does not. What really matters is terrorism. How and when will global terrorism stop? Will it stop when and if Al Qa’ida falls apart? The answer is no. Global terrorism will live on as long as there are extreamist muslims. This goes back to the muslim faith and the beliefs by some that Islam will not be forced on people rather than the only option left, therefore convertiing all non muslims. If Al Qa’ida fails other factions will rise and the results will be the same. Although the tactics used by these groups may change the ideals and use of violent terrorist actions will not. They will continue to invent ways to shock societies and use terrorism as a mechanism to force their ideals. Each successful attack with assist their recruiting efforts.
January 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Frank Chadwick said:
Leon, thanks for your thoughtful comment, although I disagree (no surpise there). It seems to me that you are the one now arguing from theory rather than experience. You say other extremist groups will rise up, but on what do you base that claim? No “new” Ba’athist (Pan-Arab Nationalist) Parties sprang up to replace the older ones as they ran out of ideological steam twenty years ago, because it was the movement which had run its course, not just a single organizational entity. It’s now the jihadist movement itself which is in trouble, not simply al-Qa’ida. Al-Qa’ida’s recruiting problems are not caused by other jihadist groups siphoning off the throngs of willing young martyrs. They are caused by dwindling supplies of willing young martyrs overall.
The thing to remember is there is nothing magical about radical Islam. It is not exempt from the laws of human behavior, any more than it is exempt from the laws of physics. For a movement to maintain traction over time, it has to deliver. Anger at “the enemy” is enough to get the ball rolling, but it seems to me it is not enough to keep it rolling indefinitely.
January 11th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Michael said:
Christians crusaded for 200 years and then spent another 600 years burning witches.
Muslims will be the same. Their leaders allow them to be sadistic and they love it. They will be killing innocent victims for hundreds of years (unless somebody kills them first).
January 20th, 2010 at 11:37 am